Land Use Change, Forestry and Greenhouse Gas Removal

Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point

Abstract

Climate change is expected to impact agricultural land use. Steadily accumulating changes in temperature and water availability can alter the relative profitability of different farming activities and promote land-use changes. There is also potential for high-impact ‘climate tipping points’, where abrupt, nonlinear change in climate occurs, such as the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, using data from Great Britain, we develop a methodology to analyse the impacts of a climate tipping point on land use and economic outcomes for agriculture. We show that economic and land-use impacts of such a tipping point are likely to include widespread cessation of arable farming with losses of agricultural output that are an order of magnitude larger than the impacts of climate change without an AMOC collapse. The agricultural effects of AMOC collapse could be ameliorated by technological adaptations such as widespread irrigation, but the amount of water required and the costs appear to be prohibitive in this instance.

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Using Individualised Choice Maps to Capture the Spatial Dimensions of Value Within Choice Experiments

Abstract

Understanding how the value of environmental goods and services is influenced by their location relative to where people live can help identify the economically optimal spatial distribution of conservation interventions across landscapes. However, capturing these spatial relationships within the confines of a stated preference study has proved challenging. We propose and implement a novel approach to incorporating space within the design and presentation of stated preference choice experiments (CE). Using an investigation of preferences concerning land use change in Great Britain, CE scenarios are presented through individually generated maps, tailored to each respondent’s home location. Each choice situation is generated in real time and is underpinned by spatially tailored experimental designs that reflect current British land uses and incorporate locational attributes relating to physical and administrative dimensions of space. To the best of our knowledge, this represents the first CE study to integrate space into both the survey design and presentation of choice tasks in this way. Presented methodology provides means for testing how presentation of spatial information influence stated preferences. We contrast our spatially explicit (mapped) approach with a commonly applied tabular CE approach finding that the former exhibits a number of desirable characteristics relative to the latter.

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Chapter 12: The natural capital approach to integrating science, economics and policy into decisions affecting the natural environment

Abstract

We demonstrate how different payment mechanisms can stimulate the efficient delivery of key, high-value ecosystem services which are either not produced, or are under-produced, by the normal operation of the market. Two payment mechanisms are considered: payments from the public sector to private businesses; and payments between private businesses. Public to private funding provides the most common Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) mechanism in the UK and most other countries. By contrast private to private (i.e. business to business) PES mechanisms remain relatively novel yet, because they tap into private sector funds, they have great potential for incentivising environmental improvements, particularly in cases where there is a profit opportunity arising from such improvements. Permutations of these mechanisms are illustrated through three case studies: Public to private funding of natural capital improvements for national level decision making (referred to as the “national level case study”); Public to private funding of natural capital improvements at catchment level (the “catchment level case study”) and; Business to business funding of natural capital improvements again at a catchment level (the ‘business to business’ case study). Together these form a matrix of decision level and funding source exemplars which provide should have wide applicability.

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Fire, Tractors, and Health in the Amazon: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Fire Policy

Abstract

Pollution from agricultural fires is a global health issue that is particularly challenging where smallholders depend on burnings for subsistence. In Acre state, Western Amazon, a partial ban on fire, enforced with fines, is coupled with subsidized tractors. To evaluate this policy, a discrete choice experiment and contingent valuation were merged into a novel statistical variant of the Hicks-Kaldor test that is robust to preference heterogeneity. Among 27 ways to extend the ban, 5 could improve both respiratory health and smallholders’ welfare, when compensated with tractors that are available for longer hours and at the right time of the year. (JEL Q51, Q52)

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Large changes in Great Britain’s vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change

Abstract

The impact of climate change on vegetation including agricultural production has been the focus ofmany studies. Climate change is expected to have heterogeneous effects across locations globally, and the diversity of land uses characterising GreatBritain (GB) presents a unique opportunity to testmethods for assessing climate change effects and impacts.GBis a relatively cool and dampcountry, hence, thewarmer and generally drier growing season conditions projected for the future are expected to increase arable production.Herewe use state-of-the-art, kilometre-scale climate change scenarios to drive a land surface model (JULES; JointUKLand Environment Simulator) and anECOnometricAGricultural land use model (ECO-AG).Under unmitigated climate change, by the end of the century, the growing season inGBis projected to get>5 °Cwarmer and 140mmdrier on average. Rising levels of atmosphericCO2 are predicted to counteract the generally negative impacts of climate change on vegetation productivity in JULES. Given sufficient precipitation, warming favours higher value arable production over grassland agriculture, causing a predicted westward expansion of arable farming in ECO-AG.However, drying in the East and Southeast, without anyCO2 fertilisation effect, is severe enough to cause a predicted reversion fromarable to grassland farming. Irrigation, if implemented, couldmaintain this land in arable production. However, the predicted irrigation demand of∼200mm(per growing season) in many locations is comparable to annual predicted runoff, potentially demanding large-scale redistribution ofwater between seasons and/or across the country. The strength of theCO2 fertilisation effect emerges as a crucial uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change onGBvegetation, especially farming land-use decisions.

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Policy design for the Anthropocene

Abstract

Today, more than ever, ‘Spaceship Earth’ is an apt metaphor as we chart the boundaries for a safe planet1. Social scientists both analyse why society courts disaster by approaching or even overstepping these boundaries and try to design suitable policies to avoid these perils. Because the threats of transgressing planetary boundaries are global, long-run, uncertain and interconnected, they must be analysed together to avoid conflicts and take advantage of synergies. To obtain policies that are effective at both international and local levels requires careful analysis of the underlying mechanisms across scientific disciplines and approaches, and must take politics into account. In this Perspective, we examine the complexities of designing policies that can keep Earth within the biophysical limits favourable to human life.

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Public funding for public goods: A post-Brexit perspective on principles for agricultural policy

Abstract

In early 2019 the United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union and with it the Common Agricultural Policy. The UK Government has announced its intentions to formulate a novel agricultural policy following the principle that public funding should be restricted to the provision of public goods. However, the acceptance, interpretation and application of this principle is the subject of intense debate. We overview the background to this debate, reveal the major flaws in present policy and identify and provide our answers to three key questions which future policy must address: (1) What are the farm related public goods that public money should support?; (2) How should that spending be allocated?; (3) How much should be spent? We believe that these questions and their answers will be of general interest beyond the UK.

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Bringing health and the environment into decision making: A natural capital framework

Abstract

Planetary Health seeks to meet the health needs of present and future humans without compromising the natural systems on which that health depends . To achieve this aim, society has to adopt a way of making decisions that not only considers their narrow financial costs and benefits, but also their broader effects on human health and the natural environment. Only by bringing all of these elements together can we both understand the financial drivers of business behaviour and the wider set of influences upon human wellbeing.

The paper overviews the measures, often called ‘metrics’, available to governments and businesses to understand the health and environmental consequences of alternative decisions and investments. These metrics provide a scientific understanding of the wider effects of change. The paper then shows how these metrics can be brought into conventional economic decision making so they can be considered on a level playing field with other costs and benefits. This approach to understanding decisions from both a business and a wider social wellbeing perspective is commonly referred to as the Natural Capital Approach.

The paper consists of three sections, followed by a brief conclusion, and is structured as follows:

• Starting with the human aspects of Planetary Health, we first provide a review of measures of human health and wellbeing. Following an initial focus on the assessment of physical health impacts of challenges such as environmental pollution and hazards, we then highlight the merits of additionally considering the positive impacts of the environment on human health. This discussion expands our focus from simply physical health to include mental health and wider measures of wellbeing. These metrics allow the decision maker to understand the diverse public health consequences of different decisions, or indeed the effects of not making any decision and allowing other factors to determine human health and wellbeing;
• We then move on to consider the environmental aspects of Planetary Health by reviewing measures of environmental status including both quantity and quality metrics. Again this allows the decision maker to see the consequences of different decisions, including inaction. This discussion highlights the great diversity of measures associated with change in the environment and the problem of assessing and comparing such metrics;
• Finally we examine how these health and environmental metrics might be brought into government or business approaches to decision making. The Natural Capital Approach has been developed as a way of bringing health and the environment into conventional economic decision making. This provides a framework for including and translating these metrics for even handed consideration alongside all the other issues which decision makers have to consider, such as the economic benefits and costs of different decisions.

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Updating the Woodland Valuation Tool: A review of recent literature on the non-market values of woodlands

Abstract

Woodlands and forests constitute arguably the most diverse environments on earth; diverse not only in terms of the plethora of characteristics and habitats they embrace, but also in terms of the variety of benefits which they offer to people. For centuries forests have been valued as a source of timber for the fibre, construction and fuel industries. However, recent decades have seen a growing appreciation of the value of woodlands, as a source of a much wider array of benefits. Forests are important assets for the sequestration and storage of carbon and, therefore, they play a role in climate change mitigation. Woodlands also contribute to air filtration more generally, removing airborne pollutants and reducing related health risks. Similarly, woodlands help to improve the water environment, providing water purification (enhancing water quality and reducing the costs of treatment) and water regulation (including the reduction of flood risks). Forests also offer highly valued landscapes and views and superb recreational opportunities, in turn generating physical and mental health benefits to visitors. Woodland environments also provide habitat for many of the country’s most treasured flora and fauna, thereby supporting biological diversity, which in turn both enhances the quality of recreational visits and generates benefits for woodland users and non-users, by ensuring the continued existence of species.

While this diversity of benefits is widely recognised, incorporating these values into decisions regarding the management and extension of woodland remains a challenge. While the value of some forest products, such as timber, is readily reflected within market prices, this is the exception rather than the rule. Most of the goods and services provided by woodlands have characteristics of public goods. To a large extent, they are not traded through markets and remain therefore unpriced. Benefits such as the removal of pollutants from air and water, flood control, or the provision of biodiversity and habitats are all delivered without the intervention of markets. While these non-market values have been shown to be very substantial, they are not reflected in market prices and, therefore, can easily be omitted from decision-making.

The provision of public goods, and in particular their funding from the public purse, has become of central importance to the policy process in recent years. Longstanding recognition of the principle of “public money for public goods” (H.M. Treasury, 2018)1 combined with the regulatory opportunities afforded by Brexit, have resulted in this principle being incorporated into the UK Government’s 25 Year Environment Plan (H.M. Government, 2018)2 and its preparations for a forthcoming Agriculture Bill (Defra, 2018)3. While much of the immediate focus of these changes is upon agriculture, the consequences of these changes are likely to have very significant impact upon woodland in the UK. Shifting agricultural support and towards public goods may provide opportunities for farm woodlands, and raise the profile of the woodlands as a major supplier of public goods.

As the emphasis upon public goods has risen up the policy agenda, so has interest in the measurement and valuation of those goods. The past five decades have seen the development of a range of methods for estimating the economic value of non-market benefits. These developments have been accompanied by a rapid growth in their empirical application across a range of non-market goods and services. One of the most common foci for such studies has been the valuation of woodland benefits and a substantial, if diverse, literature has accumulated around the world. The UK Forestry Commission has long played a substantial part in the development of this work and in 2015 commissioned a team of researchers to gather together and systematically review relevant studies of the economic value of non-market benefits of woodland (Binner et al. 2015)4. To enhance the use of this review within practical decision-making, the researchers brought the reviewed literature together as a ‘Woodland Valuation Tool’, a spreadsheet-based decision support tool, allowing decision makers to interrogate an assembled database of studies across a substantial range of dimensions designed to inform forest management across the UK.

The present report presents an update to that previous work. Specifically, it provides a review of the new literature concerning the economic value of non-market woodland benefits arising since the publication of the 2015 Binner et al. report. This e most recent review of literature has also been integrated into the Binner et al. (2017) report, to produce a more substantive document discussing the most current literature available (Binner et al., 2018). Additionally, an update of the Woodland Valuation Tool is provided, merging these new studies with those reviewed in the previous report. In combination, this is intended to provide up to date decision support for those involved in the management and extension of woodland, who wish to ensure that decisions are based upon an appraisal of the full gamut of benefits, which forests provide.

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Good parks – bad parks: the influence of perceptions of location on WTP and preference motives for urban parks

Abstract

Urban parks generate substantial public benefits, yet explicit economic assessments of such values remain relatively rare. Surveys of willingness to pay (WTP) were undertaken to assess such values for proposed new parks. The analysis assessed how preference motives and values varied according to the location of parks. Results revealed greater altruistic motivation and higher overall values for the creation of inner city as opposed to suburban parks. Spatial decomposition revealed that, after controlling for other determinants such as incomes, values generally increase for households closer to proposed parks, but that a significant downturn in values is evident for households located very close to a proposed inner city park; a finding which echoes concerns regarding the potential for such sites to provide a focus for antisocial behaviour. While these findings provide strong overall support for provision of public parks they highlight, the importance of perceptions of location and the potential for localised dis-benefits.

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Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects‌

Abstract

We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climatedriven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale.

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Valuing the social and environmental contribution of woodlands and trees in England, Scotland and Wales‌

Abstract

Woodlands and trees have a wide-ranging role in the economy but this is often under-valued in conventional economic indicators. For example, woodlands deliver social and environmental benefits – such as outdoor access, biodiversity and carbon sequestration – which are largely unpriced in economic transactions but which have important impacts on the economy and on society’s welfare. This review provides an overview of existing knowledge and evidence on the social and environmental outputs of forestry in Britain and identifies priorities for future research. It uses the concept of the ‘natural factory’ to explain how natural assets such as woodlands contribute to different economic production processes. It evaluates underpinning scientific research, economic valuation evidence, and provides a separate assessment for urban trees and woodlands. It also examines evidence needs relating to key developments in economic thinking and practice including natural capital accounting and a new generation of integrated decision support tools. Despite a substantial extant body of evidence, further research is needed to fill significant gaps in knowledge in order for the full economic contribution of woodlands to be understood.

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The potential for land sparing to oset greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

Abstract

Greenhouse gas emissions from global agriculture are increasing at around 1% per annum, yet substantial cuts in emissions are needed across all sectors. The challenge of reducing agricultural emissions is particularly acute, because the reductions achievable by changing farming practices are limited,3 and are hampered by rapidly rising food demand,5. Here we assess the technical mitigation potential offered by land sparing—increasing agricultural yields, reducing farmland area and actively restoring natural habitats on the land spared. Restored habitats can sequester carbon and can offset emissions from agriculture. Using the UK as an example, we estimate net emissions in 2050 under a range of future agricultural scenarios. We find that a land-sparing strategy has the technical potential to achieve significant reductions in net emissions from agriculture and land-use change. Coupling land sparing with demand-side strategies to reduce meat consumption and food waste can further increase the technical mitigation potential—however, economic and implementation considerations might limit the degree to which this technical potential could be realized in practice.

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Conserving tropical biodiversity via market forces and spatial targeting

Abstract

The recent report from the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity [(2010) Global Biodiversity Outlook 3] acknowledges that ongoing biodiversity loss necessitates swift, radical action. Protecting undisturbed lands, although vital, is clearly insufficient, and the key role of unprotected, private land owned is being increasingly recognized. Seeking to avoid common assumptions of a social planner backed by government interventions, the present work focuses on the incentives of the individual landowner. We use detailed data to show that successful conservation on private land depends on three factors: conservation effectiveness (impact on target species), private costs (especially reductions in production), and private benefits (the extent to which conservation activities provide compensation, for example, by enhancing the value of remaining production). By examining the high-profile issue of palm-oil production in a major tropical biodiversity hotspot, we show that the levels of both conservation effectiveness and private costs are inherently spatial; varying the location of conservation activities can radically change both their effectiveness and private cost implications. We also use an economic choice experiment to show that consumers' willingness to pay for conservation-grade palm-oil products has the potential to incentivize private producers sufficiently to engage in conservation activities, supporting vulnerable International Union for Conservation of Nature Red Listed species. However, these incentives vary according to the scale and efficiency of production and the extent to which conservation is targeted to optimize its cost-effectiveness. Our integrated, interdisciplinary approach shows how strategies to harness the power of the market can usefully complement existing—and to-date insufficient—approaches to conservation.

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The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Nonlinear Effects and Aggregation Bias in Ricardian Models of Farmland Values

Abstract

Ricardian (hedonic) analyses of the impact of climate change on farmland values typically assume additively separable effects of temperature and precipitation with model estimation being implemented on data aggregated across counties or large regions. We use a large panel of farm-level data to investigate the potential bias induced by such approaches. Consistent with the literature on plant physiology, we observe significant nonlinear interaction effects, with more abundant precipitation acting as a mitigating factor for increased heat stress. This interaction disappears when the same data are aggregated in the conventional manner, leading to predictions of climate change impacts that are significantly distorted.

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The environmental impact of climate change adaptation

Abstract

Encouraging adaptation is an essential aspect of the policy response to climate change1. Adaptation seeks to reduce the harmful consequences and harness any beneficial opportunities arising from the changing climate. However, given that human activities are the main cause of environmental transformations worldwide2, it follows that adaptation itself also has the potential to generate further pressures, creating new threats for both local and global ecosystems. From this perspective, policies designed to encourage adaptation may conflict with regulation aimed at preserving or enhancing environmental quality. This aspect of adaptation has received relatively little consideration in either policy design or academic debate. To highlight this issue, we analyse the trade-offs between two fundamental ecosystem services that will be impacted by climate change: provisioning services derived from agriculture and regulating services in the form of freshwater quality. Results indicate that climate adaptation in the farming sector will generate fundamental changes in river water quality. In some areas, policies that encourage adaptation are expected to be in conflict with existing regulations aimed at improving freshwater ecosystems. These findings illustrate the importance of anticipating the wider impacts of human adaptation to climate change when designing environmental policies.

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Natural capital and ecosystem services informing decisions: From promise to practice

Abstract

The central challenge of the 21st century is to develop economic, social, and governance systems capable of ending poverty and achieving sustainable levels of population and consumption while securing the life-support systems underpinning current and future human well-being. Essential to meeting this challenge is the incorporation of natural capital and the ecosystem services it provides into decision-making. We explore progress and crucial gaps at this frontier, reflecting upon the 10 y since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. We focus on three key dimensions of progress and ongoing challenges: raising awareness of the interdependence of ecosystems and human well-being, advancing the fundamental interdisciplinary science of ecosystem services, and implementing this science in decisions to restore natural capital and use it sustainably. Awareness of human dependence on nature is at an all-time high, the science of ecosystem services is rapidly advancing, and talk of natural capital is now common from governments to corporate boardrooms. However, successful implementation is still in early stages. We explore why ecosystem service information has yet to fundamentally change decision-making and suggest a path forward that emphasizes: (i) developing solid evidence linking decisions to impacts on natural capital and ecosystem services, and then to human well-being; (ii) working closely with leaders in government, business, and civil society to develop the knowledge, tools, and practices necessary to integrate natural capital and ecosystem services into everyday decision-making; and (iii) reforming institutions to change policy and practices to better align private short-term goals with societal long-term goals.

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Scoping study on valuing the social and environmental benefits of trees and woodlands in England, Scotland and Wales

Abstract

The diverse resources provided by trees and woodlands contribute to the production of a wide array of benefits ranging from timber to wildlife habitats and from carbon storage to water purification. This diversity is further complicated by the fact that, while some of the goods associated with forests are traded in markets and hence have associated prices, others arise outside markets and, while valuable, lack prices. The need to make evidence- based decisions regarding woodlands, including decisions such as how much public funding should be allocated to support the non-market benefits they generate, has necessitated the estimation of the value of those benefits. This scoping study provides a structured review of the state of knowledge regarding the economic valuation of social and environmental benefits derived from trees and woodlands in order to support policy and practice.

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Economic Analysis for the UK National Ecosystem Assessment: Synthesis and Scenario Valuation of Changes in Ecosystem Services

Abstract

We combine natural science modelling and valuation techniques to present economic analyses of a variety of land use change scenarios generated for the UK National Ecosystem Assessment. Specifically, the agricultural, greenhouse gas, recreational and urban greenspace impacts of the envisioned land use changes are valued. Particular attention is given to the incorporation of spatial variation in the natural environment and to addressing issues such as biodiversity impacts where reliable values are not available. Results show that the incorporation of ecosystem services and their values within analyses can substantially change decisions.

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UK National Ecosystem Assessment follow on: Synthesis of the Key Findings

Abstract

The UK National Ecosystem Assessment Follow-on (UK NEAFO) project built on the work and findings of the UK National Ecosystem Assessment (UK NEA 2011a, b). The aim of the overall project was to deliver a world-leading, peer-reviewed, independently produced report with supporting materials which develop and communicate the work of the UK NEA and make the ecosystem service framework highly relevant to decision- and policy-making at a range of spatial scales across the UK. This is particularly relevant in the face of changing pressures and governance models. The UK NEAFO had three high-level aims: * Further our understanding of the economic and social value of nature. * Develop tools and products to operationalise the Ecosystem Approach. * Support the inclusion of natural capital in the UK’s National Accounts. In particular, the UK NEAFO was commissioned to address the UK Government White Paper on the Natural Environment – The Natural Choice: securing the value of nature (2011)1. The White Paper’s aims for a follow-on to the UK NEA are to help put nature at the heart of our decision-making by: (i) investigating the actions most likely to secure the greatest benefits for people from our ecosystems and their services; and (ii) developing practical tools to help decision-makers to apply the lessons of the UK NEA. The UK NEAFO also provides a growing evidence base for other initiatives started by the White Paper, such as the Natural Capital Committee. A wide range of academics, policy-makers, delivery agents and other interested parties from the public, private and voluntary sectors have worked together in the UK NEAFO to further understanding in the following four areas: * Economic Analysis: Further development of the UK NEA’s economic analysis to increase the range of ecosystem services valued, develop our understanding of the value of natural capital stocks and changes in flows, and an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of the findings of the UK NEA. * Cultural Ecosystem Services: Additional exploration of the monetary and non-monetary values of cultural ecosystem services. Examination of how the many values that exist at individual, community or societal levels can be better understood and considered alongside economic analyses in a range of decision-making contexts. * Future Ecosystem Changes: Further development of ways in which to analyse future ecosystem changes, apply and further develop the UK NEA scenarios for decision-making, and examine a range of societal responses to the possible changes ahead. * Tools and Supporting Material: The communication of key messages and information from the UK NEA and UK NEAFO. The development of a set of practical tools and supporting materials, in partnership with key groups from the public, private and voluntary sectors, to enable audiences and end users to make the best use of the eviden

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Valuing Provisioning Ecosystem Services in Agriculture: The Impact of Climate Change on Food Production in the United Kingdom

Abstract

This paper provides an estimate of the contribution of the ecosystem to the provisioning services generated by agriculture. This is achieved by valuing the changes in productivity generated by a marginal alteration in ecosystem inputs. As an example, we consider the variation in rainfall and temperature projected by the recent UK Climate Impacts Programme. The analysis implements a spatially explicit, econometric model of agricultural land use based on the methodology recently developed by Fezzi and Bateman (Am J Agric Econ 93:1168–1188, 2011). Land use area and livestock stocking rates are then employed to calculate farm gross margin estimates of the value of changes in provisioning ecosystem services. Findings suggest that the variation in ecosystem inputs induced by climate change will have substantial influence on agricultural productivity. Interestingly, within the UK context climate change generates mainly positive effects, although losses are forecasted for those southern areas most vulnerable to heat-stress and drought.

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Economic Assessment of the Recreational Value of Ecosystems: Methodological Development and National and Local Application

Abstract

We present a novelmethodology for spatially sensitive prediction of outdoor recreation visits and values for different ecosystems. Data on outset and destination characteristics and locations are combined with survey information from over 40,000 households to yield a trip generation function (TGF) predicting visit numbers. A new meta-analysis (MA) of relevant literature is used to predict site specific per-visit values. Combining the TGF and MA models permits spatially explicit estimation of visit numbers and values under present and potential future land use. Applications to the various land use scenarios of the UK National Ecosystem Assessment, as well as to a single site, are presented.

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UK National Ecosystem Assessment follow on: Synthesis of the Key Findings

Abstract

The UK National Ecosystem Assessment Follow-on (UK NEAFO) project built on the work and findings of the UK National Ecosystem Assessment (UK NEA 2011a, b). The aim of the overall project was to deliver a world-leading, peer-reviewed, independently produced report with supporting materials which develop and communicate the work of the UK NEA and make the ecosystem service framework highly relevant to decision- and policy-making at a range of spatial scales across the UK. This is particularly relevant in the face of changing pressures and governance models. The UK NEAFO had three high-level aims: * Further our understanding of the economic and social value of nature. * Develop tools and products to operationalise the Ecosystem Approach. * Support the inclusion of natural capital in the UK’s National Accounts. In particular, the UK NEAFO was commissioned to address the UK Government White Paper on the Natural Environment – The Natural Choice: securing the value of nature (2011)1. The White Paper’s aims for a follow-on to the UK NEA are to help put nature at the heart of our decision-making by: (i) investigating the actions most likely to secure the greatest benefits for people from our ecosystems and their services; and (ii) developing practical tools to help decision-makers to apply the lessons of the UK NEA. The UK NEAFO also provides a growing evidence base for other initiatives started by the White Paper, such as the Natural Capital Committee. A wide range of academics, policy-makers, delivery agents and other interested parties from the public, private and voluntary sectors have worked together in the UK NEAFO to further understanding in the following four areas: * Economic Analysis: Further development of the UK NEA’s economic analysis to increase the range of ecosystem services valued, develop our understanding of the value of natural capital stocks and changes in flows, and an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of the findings of the UK NEA. * Cultural Ecosystem Services: Additional exploration of the monetary and non-monetary values of cultural ecosystem services. Examination of how the many values that exist at individual, community or societal levels can be better understood and considered alongside economic analyses in a range of decision-making contexts. * Future Ecosystem Changes: Further development of ways in which to analyse future ecosystem changes, apply and further develop the UK NEA scenarios for decision-making, and examine a range of societal responses to the possible changes ahead. * Tools and Supportin

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Bringing Ecosystem Services into Economic Decision-Making: Land Use in the United Kingdom

Abstract

Landscapes generate a wide range of valuable ecosystem services, yet land-use decisions often ignore the value of these services. Using the example of the United Kingdom, we show the significance of land-use change not only for agricultural production but also for emissions and sequestration of greenhouse gases, open-access recreational visits, urban green space, and wild-species diversity. We use spatially explicit models in conjunction with valuation methods to estimate comparable economic values for these services, taking account of climate change impacts. We show that, although decisions that focus solely on agriculture reduce overall ecosystem service values, highly significant value increases can be obtained from targeted planning by incorporating all potential services and their values and that this approach also conserves wild-species diversity.

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Sustainable Intensifi cation in Agriculture: Premises and Policies

Abstract

Clearer understanding is needed of the premises underlying SI and how it relates to food-system priorities.

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Chapter 22: Economic Values from Ecosystems

Abstract

Main research interests are: Integrated environmental and economic modelling for decision making; The formation and valuation of preferences for non-market goods and services; Incorporating the spatial variation and temporal dynamics of the natural environment within economic analyses and decision making; Working with policy makers to address real world environmental resource management issues.

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Towards transferable functions for extraction of Non-timber Forest Products: A case study on charcoal production in Tanzania

Abstract

Mapping the distribution of the quantity and value of forest benefits to local communities is useful for forest management, when socio-economic and conservation objectives may need to be traded off. We develop a modelling approach for the economic valuation of annual Non-Timber Forest Product (NTFP) extraction at a large spatial scale, which has 4 main strengths: (1) it is based on household production functions using data of actual household behaviour, (2) it is spatially sensitive, using a range of explanatory variables related to socio-demographic characteristics, population density, resource availability and accessibility, (3) it captures the value of the actual flow rather than the potential stock, and (4) it is generic and can therefore be up-scaled across non-surveyed areas. We illustrate the empirical application of this approach in an analysis of charcoal production in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania, using a dataset comprising over 1100 observations from 45 villages. The total flow of charcoal benefits is estimated at USD 14 million per year, providing an important source of income to local households, and supplying around 11% of the charcoal used in Dar es Salaam and other major cities. We discuss the potential and limitations of up-scaling micro-level analysis for NTFP valuation.

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Chapter 26: Valuing Changes in Ecosystem Services: Scenario Analyses

Abstract

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Economic Analysis for Ecosystem Service Assessments

Abstract

The paper seeks to contribute to the expanding literature on ecosystem service assessment by considering its integration with economic analyses of such services. Focussing upon analyses for future orientated policy and decision making, we initially consider a single period during which ecological stocks are maintained at sustainable levels. The flow of ecosystems services and their contribution to welfare bearing goods is considered and methods for valuing resultant benefits are reviewed and illustrated via a case study of land use change. We then broaden our time horizon to discuss the treatment of future costs and benefits. Finally we relax our sustainability assumption and consider economic approaches to the incorporation of depleting ecological assets with a particular focus upon stocks which exhibit thresholds below which restoration is compromised.

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Structural Agricultural Land Use Modeling for Spatial Agro-Environmental Policy Analysis

Abstract

This paper develops a spatially disaggregated, structural econometric model of agricultural land use and production based on the joint multi-output technology representation introduced by Chambers and Just (1989). Starting from a flexible specification of the farm profit function, we derive land use allocation, input application, crop yield, and livestock intensity equations in a joint and theoretically consistent framework. To account for the presence of censored observations in micro-level data, the model is estimated as a system of two-limit Tobit equations via quasi-maximum likelihood. We present an empirical application using fine-scale spatial data covering the entirety of England and Wales and including the main economic, policy, and environmental drivers of land use change in the past forty years. A simulation of the effects of diffuse pollution reduction measures illustrates how our approach can be applied for agro-environmental policy appraisal.

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UK National Ecosystem Assessment : understanding nature's value to society. Synthesis of key findings

Abstract

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Estimating Arrival Numbers for Informal Recreation: A Geographical Approach and Case Study of British Woodlands

Abstract

This paper describes a novel methodology for generating models of demand for informal outdoor recreation. We analyze visitor data from multiple forest sites across Great Britain. We introduce a wide range of variables typically omitted from most economic demand models of recreation. These include on-site characteristics, and off-site locational drivers of visitation including substitute and complement availability. A Poisson multilevel model is used to model visitor counts, and the methodology is applied to a dataset of more than 10,000 visits to open-access woodland sites. Results confirm it identifies a broader range of demand drivers than previously observed. The use of nationally available explanatory variables enhances the transferability and hence general applicability of the methodology.

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Bringing the real world into economic analyses of land use value: Incorporating spatial complexity

Abstract

The paper reviews recent developments in the incorporation of real-world spatial issues into the economic appraisal of land use change. The opening discussion introduces non-economists to the concepts underpinning the approach. The remainder of the paper uses a case study approach (concerning potential conversions from agriculture into multi-purpose woodland) to illustrate the quantification and valuation of land use change. The application of geographical information system (GIS) routines allows spatial complexity to be incorporated within the analysis. Key concepts are introduced such as making allowance for subsidies, the marginal value concept, and the valuation of non-market externalities such as carbon storage of open-access recreation. The case study also shows that, if issues such as spatial variation and externalities are ignored, sole reliance upon market prices can lead to perverse outcomes which are actually to the detriment of society.

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Reducing gain–loss asymmetry: A virtual reality choice experiment valuing land use change

Abstract

IIn the majority of choice experiments (CEs) the attributes of non-market goods are conveyed to respondents as a table of numeric and/or categorical data. Recent research suggests that respondents may have difficulties evaluating data in this format. In the context of a CE eliciting preferences for changes in coastal land use, this study uses a split-sample experiment to compare standard presentations with virtual reality (VR) visualisations conveying objectively identical information. We find that compared to the standard presentation, preferences elicited in VR treatments are less variable and exhibit a significant reduction in asymmetry between willingness to pay (WTP) for gains and willingness to accept (WTA) for corresponding losses. We conjecture that the greater ‘evaluability’ of the VR presentation reduces respondent judgement error and moderates reliance on the loss-aversion heuristic.

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The social value of carbon sequestered in Great Britain's woodlands

Abstract

The economic value of carbon storage associated with British woodland is calculated. Models were developed to estimate C flux associated with live trees, forest floor litter, soils, wood products, harvest, fossil fuel used in manufacturing and C displacement from biofuels and products for representative British plantation species: Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) and beech (Fagus sylvatica). Map databases of publicly and privately owned woodlands were compiled for Great Britain. Carbon flux was determined for individual woodland sites, and monetised using candidate parameters for the social discount rate (1, 3, 3.5 or 5%) and social value of carbon (US$109.5, $1, $10 or $17.10/t). A conventional discount function was applied. Final results are expressed as Net Present Values, for the base year 2001, with discounting commencing in 2002. The minimum suggested NPV (discount rate=3% and social value of carbon=$1) of GB woodlands already existing in 2001 is $82 million, with a further $72 million that might be added by future afforestation. These figures rise dramatically if a discount rate of 1% and social value of sequestered carbon=$109.5/t are assumed. The calculated total value of C stored in British woodland depends significantly on parameter assumptions, especially about appropriate discount rate and social value of sequestered carbon.

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The aggregation of environmental benefit values: Welfare measures, distance decay and total WTP☆

Abstract

We review the literature regarding the aggregation of benefit value estimates for nonmarket goods. Two case studies are presented through which we develop an approach to aggregation which applies the spatial analytic capabilities of a geographical information system to combine geo-referenced physical, census and survey data to estimate a spatially sensitive valuation function. These case studies show that the common reliance upon political rather than economic jurisdictions and the use of sample mean values within the aggregation process are liable to lead to significant errors in resultant values. We also highlight the fact that for resources with use values then we should expect overall values to reduce with increasing distance from such sites, but that changes in the choice of welfare measure will determinewhether such ‘distance decay’ is to be expected within values stated by those who are presently non-users. The paper concludes by providing recommendations for future improvements to the methodology.

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Analysing the Agricultural Costs and Non-market Benefits of Implementing the Water Framework Directive

Abstract

Implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) represents a fundamental change in the management of water in Europe with a requirement that member states ensure ‘good ecological status’ for all water bodies by 2015. Agriculture is expected to bear a major share of WFD implementation costs as it is compelled to reduce the emission of diffuse water pollutants. The research outlined here comprises interdisciplinary modelling of agricultural land use, hydrology and consequent water quality effects to consider both agricultural costs and the non-market recreational use (and potentially non-use) values that implementation of the Directive may generate. A theme throughout the research is the spatial distribution of the costs and benefits of WFD implementation, which is addressed through the use of GIS techniques in the modelling of agricultural land use, the integration of land use and hydrological models, and the estimation, aggregation and transfer of the economic value of the benefits.

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Comparing contingent valuation and contingent ranking: A case study considering the benefits of urban river water quality improvements

Abstract

This paper contrasts applications of both the contingent valuation (CV) and contingent ranking (CR) methods as applied to a common issue, the valuation of improvements to the water quality of an urban river (the River Tame, running through the city of Birmingham, UK). Building upon earlier experimental work, the CV design used ensures that respondents are fully aware of all impending valuation tasks prior to undertaking any one of those tasks. Such an approach is directly comparable to the CR design for which full awareness of all options is a pre-requisite. Findings indicate that the CV responses exhibit strong internal consistency with expected relationships observed between values and theoretically expected parameters. External comparisons show that CR valuations are substantially larger than those elicited through CV (with protest votes excluded), and that the response rate for the CR survey is significantly higher than that for the CV survey.

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Brainard Lovett & Bateman J Forestry carbon 2006

Abstract

We describe a model that estimates the social benefits of carbon (C) sequestered in plantation Sitka spruce in Great Britain. Final net present values (NPV, base year ¼ 2003) resulting from plausible variations in model parameters are calculated. The discount rate, social value of C, timber yield, rate of gain into live wood, length of rotation, lifetime of products, amount of C displaced by products and the changes in C flux on afforested peat soils are the most influential model components. The study predicts that C fluxes in actively managed forests in second or subsequent rotations or planted on peat soils will tend to have low or (on average) negative NPV.

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First impressions count: interviewer appearance and information effects in stated preference studies

Abstract

A simple but novel experiment is described examining the impact of interviewer appearance upon stated willingness to pay (WTP) for an environmental good. This test consists of an interviewer wearing either formal or more casual clothing. This analysis is interacted with a cross cutting treatment examining the impact well known of adding information on certain of the less familiar attributes of the good in question. Face-to-face interviews are employed to collect a sample of respondents who are randomly allocated to one of the four treatment permutations described by our interviewer appearance and information change study design. Our analysis suggests that both altering the appearance of an interviewer and changing the degree of information provided can have significant impacts upon stated WTP. Furthermore this effect is heightened when both effects are running in parallel. We argue that such findings are to be expected given the highly interactive nature of face-to-face interviewing but note that this serves to provide a cautionary note regarding the complex array of influences at work when members of the public are asked to express preferences regarding goods for which they have not previously provided monetary values.

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Contrasting Conventional with Multi-Level Modeling Approaches to Meta-Analysis: Expectation Consistency in U.K. Woodland Recreation Values

Abstract

The paper presents a variety ofmeta analysis models of woodland recreation beneŽ t estimates, contrasting conventionally estimatedmodelswith those provided by novel, multi-level modeling (MLM) techniques (Goldstein 1995). Our conventional models suggest that studies carried out by certain authors are associated with unusually large residuals within ourmeta-analysis.However, theMLMapproach explicitly incorporates the hierarchical nature ofmeta-analysis data, with estimates nested within study sites and authors. These residuals are not a signiŽ cant determinant upon values, suggesting that, at least in this aspect, estimates may be more robust than indicated by less sophisticated models. (JELQ26)

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Applying Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to Environmental and Resource Economics I.

Abstract

Many of the analyses undertaken by environmental and resource economics are intimately concerned with spatial variations. This article examines the contribution which Geographical Information Systems (GIS) may provide in incorporating the complexities of the spatial dimension within such analyses. The paper introduces the reader to the types of data handled by a GIS and overviews the practical functionality offered by such systems. A brief literature review is supplemented by a number of more detailed applications illustrating various GIS techniques which may be of use to the applied environmental or resource economist.

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Modelling demand for recreation in English woodlands

Abstract

Previous models to describe the desire for recreation at English forest sites have tended to use fairly crude and regional measures. This study demonstrates how forest recreation demand can be modelled quite locally and using just site‐specific characteristics or simple measures of available population as input. A field survey of 33 Forestry Commission sites was made in order to collect data on attractive features at each site. These data were supplemented with variables to indicate the availability of competing woodlands and population totals within set travel distances. The outputs were simple but robust stand‐alone functions to describe visits across many sites.

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Modelling and mapping timber values using geographical information systems

Abstract

A geographical information system (GIS) is used to combine and analyse data from a existing large-area databases concerning tree growth, plantation management and the environmental characteristics of planted sites in Wales. The databases included the UK Forestry Commission Sub-Compartment Database (SCDB), the Soil Survey and Land Research Centre Land Information System (LandIS), Forestry Commission topographic shelter data, and a digital elevation model for Wales. Regression analysis techniques were employed to estimate yield class models for Sitka spruce [Picea sitchensis] and beech [Fagus sylvatica], which were chosen as representative conifer and broadleaved species. The GIS was then used to extrapolate results and generate maps of predicted yield for the whole of Wales. Models of timber costs and revenues (including subsidies) were then used to convert these results into maps of timber values for use in forest investment planning.

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Valuing and Mapping Woodland Access Potential

Abstract

A statistical model of the number of visits to a surveyed woodland is developed and used to predict arrivals at a set of unsurveyed woodlands. Tests show that the model provides acceptable estimates of the actual number of arrivals. The model is then used to predict visitor numbers over a large area (the entirety of Wales) so as to produce a map of recreation demand for this area. Such a map is readily compatible with other analyses allowing a decision maker to identify optimal locations for the establishment of new woodlands.

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Estimating and valuing the carbon sequestered in softwood and hardwood trees, timber products and forest soils in Wales

Abstract

Models of carbon storage in softwood and hardwood trees and forest soils and its emission from timber products and waste are developed and integrated with data on storage benefits to yield estimates of the value of the net carbon flux generated by afforestation. The long-term nature of the processes under consideration and the impact of varying the discount rate are explicitly incorporated within the model. A geographical information system (GIS) is used to apply carbon sequestration models to data on tree growth and soil type distribution for a large study area (the entire country of Wales). The major findings are: (1) all three elements under analysis (carbon sequestration in livewood, release from different products and waste, and storage or emission from soils) play a vital role in determining overall carbon flux; (2) woodland management has a substantial impact upon carbon storage in livewood however the choice of discount rate exerts the largest overall influence upon estimated carbon flux values; (3) timber growth rates (yield class) also have a major impact upon values; (4) tree species does affect storage values, however this is less important than the other factors listed above; (5) non-peat soils generally sequester relatively low levels of carbon. Planting upon peat soils can result in very substantial emissions of carbon which exceed the level of storage in livewood. The GIS is used to produce valuation maps which can be readily incorporated within cost-benefit analyses regarding optimal locations for conversion of land into forestry.

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Modelling and mapping agricultural output values using farm specific details and environmental databases

Abstract

Ongoing concerns regarding the economic losses associated with the CAP and the negative environmental impacts of present land-use have led to calls for land use change and consequent efforts to identify areas which are, from both a financial and social perspective, most appropriate for such conversion. This paper develops and applies an output value modelling methodology in which site specific biophysical factors are combined with farm level data in order to predict input usage and, subsequently, farm profit. The spatial analytic capabilities of a geographical information system (GIS) are used to combine the variety of data employed to permit analysis of a large study area (the entirety of Wales) and yield models of both the market and shadow value of output from the two principal agricultural sectors of the area: dairying and sheep farming. The GIS is then used to produced readily interpretable maps of these values across the study area. The resulting maps are highly compatible both with value maps of alternative land uses given in the recent literature and with approaches to policy formulation currently under development by a range of UK agencies. Such maps may be used to assist estimation of the extent and location of farming response to land use policy change.

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The impact of measurement assumptions upon individual travel cost estimates of consumer surplus: a GIS analysis

Abstract

The individual travel cost method is one of the most commonly applied approaches to estimating the recreational value (or `consumer surplus') of open-access sites where the visitor does not have to pay an entrance charge for using the area. This paper presents a simple application of the method conducted using geographical information system (GIS) software. This approach permits analysis of the impact of various, commonly used, assumptions concerning the definition of visitor outset origins and routing to recreation sites. Results suggest that varying these assumptions can lead to substantial impacts upon estimates of consumer surplus to the extent that previously published studies may be subject to substantial error.

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Using geographical information systems (GIS) and large area databases to predict Yield Class: a study of Sitka spruce in Wales

Abstract

A geographic information system (GIS) is used to combine and analyse data from a variety of existing large area databases concerning tree growth, plantation management and the environmental characteristics of planted sites. Principal component analysis and regression techniques are employed to estimate a number of Yield Class models for Sitka spruce ( Picea sitchensis (Bong). Carr.). The GIS is used to extrapolate results and generate maps of predicted yield for a large study area (the entirety of Wales). The resulting methodology produces well fitting models of timber yield which compare favourably with those reported in the literature while the GIS generated maps are readily compatible with those currently under construction by various UK forestry authorities in order to plan for a proposed increase in afforested land.

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Non-users' Willingness to Pay for a National Park: An Application and Critique of the Contingent Valuation Method

Abstract

A great deal of the ongoing academic debate concerning the contingent valuation (CV) method has focused upon whether or not the method is suitable for assessing non-use values. This paper presents results from a study examining non-users' values for preserving the Norfolk Broads, a wetland area of recognized international importance, from the threat of saline flooding. Discussion of results centres upon the validity of the CV method for eliciting unbiased estimates of non-use value. A graphical representation of findings from a variety of studies is presented to suggest that such results are logically ordered across goods and valuation scenarios. However, as the paper concludes, logicality and validity are not necessarily synonymous.

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Budget-Constraint, Temporal, and Question-Ordering Effects in Contingent Valuation Studies

Abstract

A split sample approach is employed to test three potential design options for contingent valuation studies. A survey of unpriced woodland recreation is undertaken to test: (i) the impact of introducing budget constraint questions; (ii) the effect of varying temporal extent from willingness to pay (WTP) per annum to WTP per visit; and (iii) the consequences of varying the order in which such WTP questions are presented to respondents. Some significant design effects are detected. Alternative explanations of such findings are considered and implications discussed.

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Measurement issues in the travel cost method: a geographical information systems approach

Abstract

A review of the travel cost (TC) literature shows that the base measurements of travel time and distance underpinning many studies are often obtained via crude simplifications. This paper presents an application of the TC method conducted using geographical information system (GIS) software. This permits superior measurement of both travel time and distance providing a more accurate and realistic basis for valuations.

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Household Willingness to Pay and Farmers’ Willingness to Accept Compensation for Establishing a Recreational Woodland

Abstract

The UK Forestry Commission’s recently implemented Community Woodland scheme sets out to provide new recreational woodland facilities near to towns and cities where such resources are in short supply. This study examines household willingness to pay (WTP) for such a proposed woodland by means of the contingent valuation (CV) method. A strati® ed sample of 325 households in Wantage, Oxfordshire, was interviewed and asked to state both their annual and per-visit WTP. Analysis of a number of recognized potential biases suggested that the results obtained must be treated with caution although we argue that the CV provides a useful ballpark indication of preferences. A simultaneous CV survey of farmers’ willingness to accept compensation for converting agricultural land into woodland proved to be far more robust, despite a small sample size. We conclude that farmers are more familiar with the concept of assessing potential compensation than are households with estimating hypothetical payments for increased provision of public goods.

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The UK Timber Market: an Econometric Model

Abstract

Despite its importance in terms of volumes and value, little previous work has been undertaken to model quantitatively the UK timber market. This article sets out to provide a simple econometric analysis of this market, considering the influences of both home-grown and imported production, and in so doing to define an economic model which is robust to alterations in data period and which provides us with useful forecasting capabilities.

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