Learning Tools for Land Use Analysis and Decision Support Utilising Earth Observation, Natural Capital and Economic Data

Project members

Professor Ian Bateman, Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute, University of Exeter

Professor James Davidson, Department of Economics, University of Exeter

Dr Namhyun Kim, Department of Economics, University of Exeter

Dr Pipat Wongsa-art, Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University

Dr Carlo Fezzi, Department of Economics University of Trento, Italy

Dr Mattia Mancini, Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute, University of Exeter

Dr Solmaria Halleck-Vega, Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute, University of Exeter

Funded by

Turing-ONS-HSBC Economic Data Science Award

Dates of project

1 April 2019 to 30 June 2020 (15 months)

Summary

The core of this research is to develop the ability to quantitatively explain the complex interplay between scientific, economic, demographic and statistic factors that are crucial determinants of land-use in the UK. Being able to acquire a better understanding of the processes that drive land-use is essential since land-use is an important factor that determines a wide range of values (e.g. food production, energy production and forestry, water quality and quantity, flooding risk, greenhouse gas emission and storage, recreation and related physical, and mental health) and a number of important environmental concerns (e.g. the long-term decline in biodiversity in the UK).

Clearly, the process that determines land-use is exceptionally complex. It depends not only on scientific factors (e.g. climate change), but also on economic determinants (e.g. agricultural price change) and demographic variables (e.g. population growth), to name a few. Furthermore, there are other determinants, which can collectively be described as statistical factors, for example spatial and temporal dependence, and co-movements, (e.g. common trend). The proposed research will conduct an empirical analysis of the interplay between land-use and its important determinants, especially climate change and the agricultural price change, and to construct accurate forecasts
of land-use in the UK.