Accurate predictions of destructive weather patterns are essential for business.Partnering with the Met Office
How good are warnings of severe weather?
Staying informed about potentially destructive weather is vital for governments, businesses and the public – so warnings of severe weather are important for any National Weather Service. From high wind to heavy rain, it is vital these warnings are accurate and timely to ensure they are effective.
To review how such warnings are evaluated, Professor David Stephenson from the University of Exeter initiated and led a joint research project between the University and the Met Office. The project reviewed the methods currently used for assessing the quality of these warnings and how such methods might be improved in the future. The aim was to identify the strengths and weaknesses of current practice and to find new ways of evaluating severe weather warnings for the future.
The research has led to a comprehensive White Paper Review on the quality of warnings: Stephenson, D.B, I.T. Jolliffe, C.A.T. Ferro, C.A. Wilson, M. Sharpe, M. Mittermaier, and T.D. Hewson, 2010: White Paper Review on the Verification of Warnings, Met Office Forecasting Research Technical Report No. 546, 22 pp.
You can download the report here.
Here at the University of Exeter we have extensive statistical expertise in forecast evaluation, which means we can provide some unique skills to this collaboration. It is exciting to work on this important area of research because warnings are one of the most important products that National Weather Services provide.
To improve something, you first need to know how good it is and where the issues are, so it is vital evaluation methods are as informative as possible. Our review has helped identify some key areas of focus for assessing these warnings. For example, new evaluation methods need to be developed that are capable of assessing the timing errors in such warnings since this is an important factor in ensuring they are delivered in time to be of use to end-users.
By finding appropriate ways to evaluate these warnings we can make sure they are fit for the job and up to scratch for more extreme severe weather events that are expected in the future due to climate change. Ultimately we are helping the Met Office to improve the great job they do in warning people of what the weather has in store.
Professor David Stephenson
