Climate Change and Sustainable Futures Seminar

24 September

Streatham Campus - Amory 417 and video conferenced to Tremough - Peter Lanyon, Seminar 10;

4pm - 6pm

• Professor John Thornes, University of Birmingham speaking on ‘Atmospheric Services’
• Dr Alistair Hunt, Senior Environmental Economist, University of Bath and Metroeconomica speaking on ‘Economic Appraisal of Climate Change Adaptation at the Local Level’

Abstract - ‘Atmospheric Services’, Professor John Thornes

The terms Weather Services, Meteorological Services and Climate Services have existed for some time as part of the commercial and public services offered by national and private meteorological providers. These services supply information about the state of the atmosphere (eg weather forecasts, climate prediction, weather and climate data sets, weather derivatives, weather insurance, etc). Atmospheric Services on the other hand, as proposed in this paper, refers to the intrinsic set of natural goods and services that the atmosphere itself brings to life on Earth: from the air that we breathe to the protection provided by the ozone layer, to the transmission of sound, to the support of air transport and to the provision of natural global warming.

Twelve basic atmospheric services have been identified (Table 1) and valued at more than 100 times the Gross World Product (GWP). GWP was £50 Trillion in 2008 therefore Atmospheric Services are worth more than £5000 Trillion per year. Ecosystem Services have been valued at about twice GWP. This analysis shows that the atmosphere is by far the most precious and valuable of all natural resources in the Earth System. The paper attempts to justify the valuation of these atmospheric resources and also infers that the atmosphere should be treated as a global commons and responsibility for its sustainable management should be shared equally amongst all of society. Likewise everyone should benefit equally from atmospheric services.

Abstract - ‘Economic Appraisal of Climate Change Adaptation at the Local Level’, Professor Alistair Hunt

Many climate-sensitive sectors such as flood management and water resources utilise economic appraisal – and, in particular – cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of capital investments. However, when faced with the uncertainties currently described for future climates it is recognised that conventional CBA approaches may be inappropriate.

This talk will first outline the extent to which current methods have succeeded in estimating the impact welfare costs (equivalent to the benefits of adaptation) of climate change, and the limitations of such efforts. The talk will then outline a method of appraisal that incorporates measurement of economic efficiency objectives – as sought through the use of CBA – within a broader, portfolio-based approach that more explicitly recognises the risk-return trade-offs introduced by incorporation of climate change uncertainties within an appraisal. This method is initially applied in the flood risk context.