Climate Change and Sustainable Futures Seminar

02 February

This seminar was held on the Streatham campus in the Poldhu room, Kay Building. Presentations were given by David Sexton from the Met Office and Ana Lopez from the Grantham Institute at LSE ;

The slides from the presentations are available in pdf format here. Please be aware that their use is protected under copyright statement below.

“Making probabilistic climate projections for the UK”

David Sexton, Met Office

Making probabilistic climate projections for the UK: David Sexton (pdf)

Abstract

UKCP09, the latest set of climate projections for the UK were released on June 18th 2009. For the first time the climate projections for the UK are probabilistic, so that it is an appropriate tool for people who are taking a risk-based approach to policy and decision making. I will give a brief overview of how the probabilities were estimated using a) a combination of a number of climate model ensembles which explore parameter uncertainty in different components of the Earth System and b) a Bayesian framework which combines this climate model output with observations to provide probabilities that are relevant to the real world and therefore relevant to risk-based decision making. I will also discuss feedback from the users and lessons learnt so far on how the probabilistic projections are used.

“From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts and adaptation: A case study of water resource management in the South West of England”

Ana Lopez, the Grantham Institute at LSE

From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts and adaptation: Ana Lopez (pdf)

Abstract

The majority of climate change impacts and adaptation studies so far have been based on at most a few deterministic realizations of future climate, usually representing different emissions scenarios. Large ensembles of climate models are increasingly available either as ensembles of opportunity, or perturbed physics ensembles, providing a wealth of additional data that is potentially useful for improving adaptation strategies to climate change. Due to the novelty of this ensemble information, there is little previous experience of practical applications or of the added value of this information for impacts and adaptation decision-making. In this talk I will discuss the value of perturbed physics ensembles of climate models for understanding and planning public water supply under climate change. I will argue that the additional information contained in the climate model ensemble provides a better understanding of the possible ranges of future conditions, and appropriately used can be a valuable tool to inform the design and management of water resources systems in a non stationary climate.

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