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Coverack Flooding 19 July 2017 ©Andy James CORMAC

Global Systems Institute3rd Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3)

CCRA3 Technical Chapters

3rd Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3)

Action to improve the UK’s resilience to climate change is failing to keep pace with the impacts of a warming planet. This is the conclusion of a comprehensive Risk Assessment of UK climate risk for the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment – CCRA3. The Assessment was led by the Climate Change Committee (CCC), the UK Government’s Independent advisers on climate change.   

The University of Exeter in partnership with the Met Office Hadley Centre led on the detailed 1500 – page CCRA3 Technical Report, a major component of the Independent Assessment.

The Technical Report collates the latest evidence of the risk climate change poses to the UK and assigned an urgency score to over 60 risks and opportunities across every aspect of life in the UK. This includes risks to communities, health, ecosystems, infrastructure and businesses, along with risks to the UK from climate change impacts elsewhere in the world. UK-wide, nearly 60% of risks were given the highest urgency score. The Report was written by a large team of experts led the University of Exeter’s Professor Richard Betts MBE.  

Professor Betts, a member of the University’s Global Systems Institute, said: “We are heating the global climate by causing greenhouse gases to build up in the atmosphere. Further change is already locked-in so we urgently need to prepare for that.

If we don’t change course and start reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, we are on track for anywhere between 2°C and 4°C global warming by the end of this century, possibly even higher. The impacts of this would be profound and severe around the world, including here in the UK”

The Met Office Hadley Centre, where Professor Betts is Head of Climate Impact Research, produced the UKCP18 Climate Projections that were central the risk assessment.   

The Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk (CCRA3) involved over 450 experts from 130 organisations and will inform the Government’s third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3 Government Report) and the next UK and devolved National Adaptation Plans. More information about the CCC’s Independent Risk Assessment and Advice Report can be found here www.theccc.org.uk

The Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk (CCRA3) includes the Technical Report which can be found at https://www.ukclimaterisk.org/ . The Technical report was written by the following experts 

  • Prof Richard Betts MBE (University of Exeter and Met Office – Project Director)
  • Prof Dame Julia Slingo DBE FRS (University of Exeter)
  • Paul Watkiss (Paul Watkiss Associates)
  • Dr Pam Berry (University of Oxford)
  • Dr Iain Brown (University of Dundee)
  • Dr Ruth Wood (University of Manchester)
  • Prof Lee Chapman (University of Birmingham)
  • Dr David Jaroszweski (University of Birmingham)
  • Dr Sari Kovats (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)
  • Rachel Brisley (JBA Consulting)
  • Dr Swenja Surminski (London School of Economics)
  • Prof Andy Challinor (University of Leeds)
  • Prof Tim Benton (University of Leeds and Chatham House)

The following University of Exeter scientists also contributed to the Risk Assessment

  • Professor Claire Belcher led a major review of climate change and wildfire risks in the UK
  • Dr Mattia Mancini and Professor Ian Bateman analysed climate change impacts on land use and agricultural emissions
  • Dr Tim Johns made a detailed comparison of old and new climate projections.