Learning Tools for Land Use Analysis and Decision Support Utilising Earth Observation, Natural Capital and Economic Data

Summary

The core of this research is to develop the ability to quantitatively explain the complex interplay between scientific, economic, demographic and statistic factors that are crucial determinants of land-use in the UK. Being able to acquire a better understanding of the processes that drive land-use is essential since land-use is an important factor that determines a wide range of values (e.g. food production, energy production and forestry, water quality and quantity, flooding risk, greenhouse gas emission and storage, recreation and related physical, and mental health) and a number of important environmental concerns (e.g. the long-term decline in biodiversity in the UK).

Clearly, the process that determines land-use is exceptionally complex. It depends not only on scientific factors (e.g. climate change), but also on economic determinants (e.g. agricultural price change) and demographic variables (e.g. population growth), to name a few. Furthermore, there are other determinants, which can collectively be described as statistical factors, for example spatial and temporal dependence, and co-movements, (e.g. common trend). The proposed research will conduct an empirical analysis of the interplay between land-use and its important determinants, especially climate change and the agricultural price change, and to construct accurate forecasts
of land-use in the UK.