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War and Public Opinion

Module description

In this course, you will examine public opinion about war and international relations. Specific topics include: public support for going to war, the public opinion response to war, how public opinion shapes and constrains the choices of leaders and foreign policy makers in democratic states (comparing and contrasting to political motivations of autocratic ones), as well as the effects of political psychology variables on public and elite perceptions and decision-making processes. You will learn that many factors shape people’s foreign policy preferences.

Module aims - intentions of the module

You will able to demonstrate knowledge of the complex and dynamic relationship between public opinion and foreign policy. You will learn the important role that public opinion plays in guiding the foreign policy choices of democratic states. You will be exposed to multiple competing theoretical approaches will be able to articulate similarities and differences to these competing approaches. Particular emphasis will be placed how to read and evaluate quantitative data analysis. This is a quantitatively oriented course. There are no quantitative prerequisites (the instructors will give all relevant training to perform well in the course, but you should be prepared to engage with quantitative work). Taken together, this class will help your skills in applying theory to data, and subsequently using data to inform theory.  

Intended Learning Outcomes (ILOs)

ILO: Module-specific skills

On successfully completing the module you will be able to...

• 1. use substantive and methodological knowledge to critically analyse public opinion data about international affairs, foreign policy, and war;
• 2. demonstrate knowledge in basic and advanced methodologies and tools of analysis used by public opinion researchers;

ILO: Discipline-specific skills

On successfully completing the module you will be able to...

• 3. analyze a broad spectrum of research designs applicable to the study of politics and international relations;
• 4. synthesize competing theories in order to apply them to novel social science problems;

ILO: Personal and key skills

On successfully completing the module you will be able to...

• 5. demonstrate critical thinking skills, particularly as they relate to evaluating empirical (quantitative) evidence;
• 6. demonstrate writing skills to facilitate more powerful communication; and
• 7. work independently, within a limited time frame, to complete a specified task.

Syllabus plan

Whilst the module’s precise content may vary from year to year, it is envisaged that the syllabus will cover some or all of the following topics:

• What the public knows (and doesn’t know) about foreign affairs
• Situational factors that shape public opinion about war
• Principal Policy Objective (PPO) and support for war
• Elite signals and rhetoric
• Understanding the contested role of casualties
• Group identity
• Expectations of success
• Media effects and framing
• Individual level factors that shape public opinion and elite perceptions about war
• Personality
• Emotions and Morality

Learning activities and teaching methods (given in hours of study time)

Details of learning activities and teaching methods

Formative assessment

Summative assessment (% of credit)

Details of summative assessment

Details of re-assessment (where required by referral or deferral)

Indicative learning resources - Basic reading

Thomson, Catarina. “Public support for Economic and Military Coercion and Audience Costs” (2016) British Journal of Politics and International Relations” Vol 18 (2): 407–421

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, “Testing Novel Implications from the Selectorate Theory of War,” World Politics 56(3) 2004 368-388.

Lake, David, and Robert Powell, “International Relations: A Strategic-Choice Approach”  (1999) Princeton University Press. Chapter One: International Relations: A Strategic-Choice Approach David A. Lake and Robert Powell 3-38 

Baum, Matthew A. and Philip B. K. Potter. 2008. “The Relationship Between Mass Media, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: Toward a Theoretical Synthesis.”  Annual Review of Political Science 91-109.

Key words search

International Relations, war, public opinion