The art and science of prediction

With an urgent need to reverse the rapid destruction of the biodiversity and ecosystems upon which humans depend, it is often useful to make accurate forecasts to enable targeted and timely interventions. In this month's challenge, I delve into the question of whether - and how - researchers make predictions about the impacts of environmental change. I contend that while most predictions are wrong, some are useful and the central challenge, then, is to make them less wrong and more useful. Using species responses to climate change as a case study, I demonstrate how integrating physics, biology, socio-economics and comedy can enhance the accuracy, utility and memorability of predictions. Along the way, I question some prevailing paradigms about how predictions are typically made and will also cover our recent contribution to a special issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society dedicated to ‘Recovering nature’ in commemoration of the life and work of the brilliant Georgina Mace. Georgina was Editor-in-Chief of this journal from 2008 until 2010 and was the first female Editor-in-Chief of a Royal Society journal. You can read about our work here and more of papers dedicated to her legacy here.

If you would like a Teams link to this event, please email esidirector@exeter.ac.uk. 

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