Statistics and Data Science Seminar: Dr. Laura Dawkins (Met Office)

This seminar explores how advanced statistical modelling supports hazard-informed decision making in the context of climate risk and resilience. I will present two key applications: (1) spatial risk frameworks for heat-related impacts and (2) return level estimation for flood risk. The talk highlights methods for translating hazard information into actionable risk metrics, including Generalised Additive Models for spatial uncertainty quantification, Bayesian decision analysis for robust adaptation strategies, and Extreme Value Analysis for flood hazard characterization. These techniques aim to provide richer uncertainty quantification and support evidence-based decisions under climate change scenarios.