3rd Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) Call for Evidence
10 May 2019
The deadline for the CCRA3 Call for Evidence has been extended. You now have until 17th May 2019 to submit your evidence.
A team of experts commissioned by the Committee on Climate Change launched a Call for Evidence to inform the UK’s 3rd Climate Change Risk Assessment. They are seeking evidence on the risks that climate change brings to the UK, both directly to the country itself and also via impacts elsewhere in the world, and on adaptation measures in place or planned that aim to reduce these risks.
Under the 2008 Climate Change Act, the government is required to provide Parliament with a comprehensive assessment of the risks that climate change poses to the UK every 5 years. The 3rd risk assessment, CCRA3, is due to be laid before Parliament by January 2022.
The technical chapters for the CCRA3 Evidence Report are being written by a team of experts led by the University of Exeter in partnership with the Met Office. The team members and their organisations are listed below. The team are inviting evidence to inform their analysis in the following topic areas:
- Probability and magnitude of extreme weather events in the current climate, including historically unprecedented events.
- Projected changes in extreme events in the future, on timescales from the next few years to the end of the 21st Century and beyond, including consideration of a range of possible future greenhouse gas emissions and other climate change drivers.
- Risk Assessment methodologies.
- Climate change risks and opportunities within the UK, and related adaptation (both current and potential) under the following categories:
- Natural environment and natural assets
- People and the built environment
- Business and industry
- Risks to the UK due to climate change impacts elsewhere in the world, and current and potential adaptation to address these.
Any information on the above topics is relevant, but the following general issues are of particular interest:
- How risks or opportunities may have changed in the light of improved methods of assessment and new knowledge since the completion of the analysis for the previous CCRA in 2015.
- The quantified effects of current and planned adaptation policies and other adaptation action in the overall assessment of risk.
- What the net effect of different risks acting together could be, either due to concurrent timing, acting on the same location or the same receptor.
- How climate change interacts with socio-economic factors to affect the level of risk or opportunity.
- Quantitative assessments of the benefits of adaptation action.
- Identification of any key thresholds in risks or adaptation.
- Identification of the potential for lock-in of particular adaptation measures or lack of them, i.e. decisions made now that commit to long-term consequence or courses of action.
- Quantitative assessment of the uncertainties, limitations and confidence in the underlying evidence and analysis for different risks and adaptation measures.
Evidence should be in the form of academic papers in relevant fields or official reports from government, private sector or civil society organisations with responsibility for any aspect of adaptation to climate change. Evidence should have undergone independent review, either through publication in a peer-reviewed academic journal or an equivalent quality control process for non-academic reports. Evidence currently in draft form can be considered, provided it undergoes independent review and is available in final form by the time of the CCRA3 expert review (currently expected to be June 2020).
Our aim is that our assessment will be informed by the latest scientific and economic analysis.
How to submit evidence
If you would prefer to post your response, please send it to:
3rd Climate Change Risk Assessment Project
Alissa Haward, Project Manager
801g, University of Exeter
North Park Road
Evidence should be received by 17th May 2019
The CCRA3 Technical Chapters Project Team
Writing of the CCRA3 technical chapters are being led by the following experts:
- Prof Richard Betts (University of Exeter and Met Office – Project Director)
- Prof Dame Julia Slingo FRS (University of Exeter)
- Paul Watkiss (Paul Watkiss Associates)
- Dr Pam Berry (University of Oxford)
- Dr Iain Brown (University of Dundee)
- Dr Ruth Wood (University of Manchester)
- Prof Lee Chapman (University of Birmingham)
- Dr David Jaroszweski (University of Birmingham)
- Dr Sari Kovats (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)
- Rachel Brisley (JBA Consulting)
- Katharine Knox (Independent consultant)
- Dr Swenja Surminski (London School of Economics)
- Prof Andy Challinor (University of Leeds)
- Prof Tim Benton (University of Leeds and Chatham House)
Around 200 experts from approximately 65 organisations are also contributing to the chapter writing and other components of the CCRA3 process. The CCRA3 programme as a whole is being managed by the Committee on Climate Change. More background on CCRA3 can be found here.
Follow-up on the inclusion of evidence in the CCRA3 Technical Chapters
We expect that some evidence contributors will want to check how we have referred to their evidence in the write-up of the evidence report. Please include in your submission whether you wish to review sections of the report where your evidence has been used as requested above.
The author team reserves the right to make final decisions on which sources of evidence to include in the report. We may decide not to include your evidence for a number of reasons, e.g.
- If it does not directly help us to analyse the risks and opportunities from climate change for the UK.
- If it is not deemed to be robust.
- If it does not include enough background information or data to allow us to understand the method, assumptions and results.
- If it is not in English.
We will send confirmation on receipt of your submission. The chapter team will not follow up on submissions as a matter of course, but we may get in touch to ask questions or seek clarification on some submissions, particularly when considering how the evidence may be used. This follow up may occur any time between 13th May 2019 and 31st December 2020. If we do not use your evidence, we will provide a justification for this decision on request.
Accountability, confidentiality and data protection
The CCRA3 Evidence Report is an independent report. The chapter team will hold sole responsibility and accountability for how evidence has been used and interpreted in the technical chapters. Final decisions for how evidence is used in the technical chapters will rest with the chapter team. Please note that the CCRA3 technical chapters will be independently peer-reviewed. The Evidence Report will also include a Synthesis Report produced by the CCC.
The names of individuals or organisations who have submitted evidence may be published on our website after the response deadline. We will not automatically publish copies of the submissions sent, but these will be referred to in the evidence report itself where we have made use of the relevant evidence.
If you want the information that you provide to be treated as confidential, please say so clearly in writing when submitting your evidence. It would be helpful if you could explain to us why you regard the information you have provided as confidential. If we receive a request for disclosure of the information we will take full account of your explanation, but we cannot give an assurance that confidentiality can be maintained in all circumstances. An automatic confidentiality disclaimer generated by your IT system will not, of itself, be regarded by us as a confidentiality request.
All information provided in response to this consultation, including personal information, may be subject to publication or disclosure in accordance with the access to information legislation (primarily the Freedom of Information Act 2000, the Data Protection Act 1998 and the Environmental Information Regulations 2004).