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Climate Change: The Physical Basis of the IPCC

Module description

This module evaluates the physical science behind the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC produces assessment reports and special reports that provide global policy makers with key information about likely future climate change. Consequently, there is a strong focus in these IPCC documents in presenting state-of-the-art climate change science that represents the full complexity of the coupled climate system to policy makers. This module will examine the structure and scope of the IPCC as well as the data used in establishing the headline statements made in the latest IPCC assessment report. Topics covered by this module will cover a cross-section of the coupled climate system including changes in atmospheric temperature, precipitation, Antarctic and Arctic ice dynamics, sea level change, ocean circulation and extreme weather. The module will take a hands-on approach to evaluating the data that underpins these reports and examines how the IPCC communicates the inherent complexities of the climate system to policy makers. We will explore how we observe the modern climate system and approaches to understanding how the climate system has changed in the past and how we can predict likely future climate change.

There are no pre-requisites requirements for taking this module.

Module aims - intentions of the module

This module aims to:

• explore the history, structure, and development of the IPCC.
• demonstrate how the IPCC effectively communicates complex scientific ideas.
• examine the approaches used by the IPCC to communicate uncertainty.
• demonstrate how Earth’s climate system has changed over past decades to centuries.
• explore the challenges in developing likely future climate scenarios.
• demonstrate key techniques in modelling future climate variability.
• demonstrate the importance of both internal and external factors in driving climate variability.
• establish key skills in analysing and communicating climate data.
• establish an understanding of the complexities inherent with the coupled climate system.

Through attending the lectures and practical sessions and through completing the assessments, you will work towards developing the following graduate attributes:

• Data analysis
• Coding skills (R)
• Report writing skills
• Presentation skills
• Problem solving (linking theory to practice)
• Developing your own ideas with confidence
• Being able to respond to novel and unfamiliar problems
• Task management (identifying key objectives, setting clearly defined goals, developing strategies to ensure individual success)
• Time management (managing time effectively)

The teaching contributions on this module involve elements of research undertaken by staff, such as work on high resolution climate records (Reynolds)

Intended Learning Outcomes (ILOs)

ILO: Module-specific skills

On successfully completing the module you will be able to...

• 1. Describe the structure and history of the IPCC
• 2. Describe the theory and rationale behind future climate scenarios
• 3. Describe the complexity of the climate response to a range of climate forcings
• 4. Describe the breadth of climate data, including observations and proxy data
• 5. Analyse and synthesise complex climate datasets
• 6. Communicate complexities of climate change to policy makers
• 7. Discuss the problems and potentials of predicting future climate variability

ILO: Discipline-specific skills

On successfully completing the module you will be able to...

• 8. Describe in detail and analyse essential facts and theory across a sub-discipline of geography.
• 9. Analyse and evaluate independently a range of research-informed literature and synthesise research-informed examples from the literature into written work.
• 10. Identify and implement, with limited guidance, appropriate methodologies and theories for solving a range of complex problems within geography
• 11. With minimal guidance, deploy established techniques of analysis and enquiry within geography.
• 12. Describe and evaluate in detail approaches to our understanding of geography with reference to primary literature, reviews and research articles.

ILO: Personal and key skills

On successfully completing the module you will be able to...

• 13. Devise and sustain, with little guidance, a logical and reasoned argument with sound, convincing conclusions.
• 14. Communicate effectively arguments, evidence and conclusions using a variety of formats in a manner appropriate to the indeed audience.
• 15. Analyse and evaluate appropriate data and complete a range of research-like tasks with very limited guidance.

Syllabus plan

Whilst the content may vary from year to year, it is envisioned that it will cover some or all of the following topics:

• The history and structure of the IPCC.
• Techniques used to observe the climate system.
• Techniques used to model the climate system.
• Techniques used to reconstruct past climate variability.
• Internal climate mechanisms (e.g. feedback loops, ocean dynamics).
• The role of external climate forcings (volcanic eruptions and solar variability) and anthropogenic forcings in driving the climate system.
• Arctic amplification.
• Extreme weather events.
• Spatial signatures of future temperature and precipitation patterns.
• Global sea level rise.
• The historical context for modern climate change.

Learning activities and teaching methods (given in hours of study time)

Details of learning activities and teaching methods

Formative assessment

Summative assessment (% of credit)

Details of summative assessment

Details of re-assessment (where required by referral or deferral)

Re-assessment notes

Deferral – if you miss an assessment for certified reasons judged acceptable by the Mitigation Committee, you will normally either be deferred in the assessment or an extension may be granted. The mark given for re-assessment taken as a result of deferral will not be capped and will be treated as if it were your first attempt at the assessment.

Referral – if you have failed the module overall (i.e. a final overall module mark of less than 40%) you will be required to submit further assessments. The mark given for a re-assessment taken as a result of referral will count for 100% of the final mark and will be capped at 40%.

Indicative learning resources - Basic reading

• IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.
• IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
• Ruddiman, W.F. 2013. (3^rd ed.). Earth’s climate: past and future. Freeman.
• Scenarios, E., 2000. IPCC special report. Cambridge Univ, Cambridge.

Key words search

climate, climate change, global warming, IPCC, marine, ocean, hydrography, climate modelling, palaeocliamte, policy