GSI Annual Lecture - Geoffrey West 'On the future of the planet: life, growth, death and singularities from organisms to ecosystems and from cities to companies.'

Why do people and companies stop growing and then die, whereas cities keep growing while the pace of life continues to accelerate? How about the planet? Can the super-exponential growth of the anthroposphere be sustained or are we on the edge of some major transition: is "the end of the world nigh”? And how is all of this related to innovation, wealth creation, social networks and urbanisation? These are among the questions that will be explored in this lecture. Although life is the most complex and diverse phenomenon in the Universe, almost all of its characteristics from cells to cities obey surprisingly simple, approximately “universal” scaling laws which constrain the organisation and dynamics of biological, ecological and socio-economic life. These include metabolism, growth, lifespans, energy, patents, pollution, roads, crime and disease. These laws originate in the underlying mathematical properties of the social, infrastructural and resource transportation networks that sustain life across all scales. They lead to dramatic consequences for long-term growth and sustainability, including the threat of impending singularities and tipping points: left unchecked, innovation and wealth creation that fuel socio-economic systems and open-ended growth potentially sow the seeds for their collapse.

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