PROMETHEUS: Probabilistic Future Weather Research Project

Downloads

The PROMETHEUS project has resulted in the release of a number of future weather files which can be used to test how future-proof buildings are against predicted climate change. The files were created using the UKCP09 weather generator, and are available for download for free from this website, subject to terms and conditions. The weather files are currently available for 45 locations as indicated by the map on the right, each for 3 time periods and 2 emissions scenarios.

The files are in the Energy Plus format (.epw) which can be imported into most building thermal simulation software packages including IES. The files can also be opened in Excel as a comma separated variable file. More details can be found in the Weather Generator Read Me file.

The full methodology for On the creation of future probabilistic design weather years from UKCP09 has been peer-reviewed and is published in BSER&T. When referencing the weather files in publications and reports please reference as: M. Eames, T. Kershaw and D. Coley Building Serv. Eng. Res. Technol., 32 127-142 (2011).

Downloading the future weather files

In order to download the future weather files you must first read and agree to our terms and conditions.

The data collected below will be used to keep track of how the weather files are used and to assess the impact of this particular resource. It will also be used to keep users up to date with any changes to the data sets. Personal data collected is confidential and will not be shared with third parties without permission.

Please fill in our form to download the future weather files.

Project proposal

It is well known that climate change will have a significant impact on UK building design and energy use. It is also known that the current standard reference year and design summer year (these are the weather files used by industry-standard computer models of buildings), being assembled from data collected only up to 1995, do not represent even the current UK climate. The building design community is therefore highly exposed to the possibility of occupant dissatisfaction and possible litigation.

In addition, most buildings are not being designed to cope with increased variability in a warming climate. The desire to use probabilistic scenarios will not solve this unless either new reference years are created, made widely available and guidance given on which ones to use, or totally new methods are developed. Even this is likely to be unsuccessful in driving adaptation decisions unless a full understanding of how designers might use such data is gained and a consistent way found of examining any changes in costs.

There is therefore a need to simultaneously study not only probabilistic data sets for the built environment, but also how such information can be used to drive adaptation decisions. In many ways the move to probabilistic outputs by such groups as UKCIP presents an opportunity. The ability to create bespoke probabilistic reference years using, for example, a weather generator, changes the way problems can be tackled and even how the client or architect thinks about such issues. An interdisciplinary approach is envisaged with the project separated into seven work packages:

1. It has been identified that high resolution climate information has many practical applications for building design (for example the BETWIXT project). However, the best way to downscale climate model information for any particular application is not clear. We will agree a process for the creation of new reference years for the period 2010 to 2080, with hourly time steps. This will make use of the UKCIP08 probability distribution functions and UKCIP08's weather generator, but with the addition of wind direction estimates.
2. Consider how (in theory) probabilistic climate data is best used to produce useful and accurate predictions of internal environments and energy use.
3. Create a large set of reference years compatible with common building simulation codes based on the latest probabilistic results.
4. Given the complex decision-making context of future proofing, an additional aim of the project is to better understand the organisational, social, and psychological factors that might influence the willingness of the industry to adopt new technologies or practices. Research will focus on how engineers work in practice, the time and knowledge constraints they work under, and the motivational factors that are likely to influence decisions about using future-proofing technology.
5. There is the need to fully understand the range of possible results in building performance that can be generated by UKCIP08 and then to finalise a much smaller sub-set of probabilistic reference years (PRYs), that reflect the needs and practices of design teams working within a commercial environment. (These files would be delivered in a format consistent with the requirements of common building simulation codes.)
6. Examination of the effect of climate change on UK building design and refurbishment. The smaller PRY subset would be used to examine how parameters such as thermal mass and glazed fraction can be used most effectively to improve thermal comfort and reduce energy demand for a range of built forms and uses, and produce case studies.
7. The economic costs of various design strategies will also need to be examined, for example the increased cost of cooling, as will the cost to architectural practices of altering their working practices in order to make use of probabilistic data.

Publications

Modelling the Impact of Climate Change in Schools,
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Conference: Dangerous Rates of Change, Exeter, Sept. 2008.

Climate Change, Thermal Comfort and Building Design,
CIBSE Natural Ventilation Group

Changes in Internal Temperatures within the Built Environment as a Response to a Changing Climate
Building and Environment, Volume 45 (1), January 2010, Pages 89-93

Characterizing the Response of Buildings to Climate Change - the issue of overheating,
5th Urban Research Symposium "Cities and Climate Change: Responding to an Urgent Agenda", Marseille, June. 2009.

Estimation of the Urban Heat Island for UK Climate Change Projections,
Building Services Engineering Research & Technology, Volume 31 (3), August 2010, Pages 251-264

Accessing the Thermal Mass above Suspended Ceilings via a Perimeter Gap: a CFD Study of Naturally Ventilated Spaces,
International Journal of Ventilation, Volume 9 (2), September 2010, Pages 163-176

Comparison of Multi-Year and Reference Year Building Simulations,
Building Services Engineering Research & Technology, Volume 31 (4), November 2010, Pages 357-369

Framing, Uncertainty and Climate Change,
Global Environmental Change

On the Creation of Future Probabilistic Design Weather Years from UKCP09,
Building Services Engineering Research & Technology, Volume 32 (2), May 2011, Pages 127-142

The Creation of Wind Speed and Direction Data for the Use in Probabilistic Future Weather Files,
Building Services Engineering Research & Technology, Volume 32 (2), May 2011, Pages 143-158

Building a Better Future: An Exploration of Beliefs about Climate Change and Perceived Need for Adaptation within the Building Industry,
Building and Environment, Volume 46 (5), May 2011, Pages 1151-1158

Assessing the Risk of Climate Change for Buildings: A Comparison between Multi-Year and Probabilistic Reference Year Simulations,
Building and Environment, Volume 46 (6) June 2011, Pages 1303-1308

The Appropriate Spatial Resolution of Future Weather Files for Building Simulation,
Journal of Building Performance Simulation, DOI:10.1080/19401493.2011.608133

Future UK Circulation and Wind Projections and their Relevance for the Built Environment,
Met Office Report, August 2010.

Terms and conditions

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